November 30, 2017
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THE WIZARDRY OF OS
Assistant Basketball Coach and Head Swimming Coach at Central High
What did you expect? The answer to that question will probably determine how you feel about LSU’s 9-3 regular season.
Vegas thought LSU would win 9 games. I thought LSU would win 10. I expected LSU to lose at Alabama. I expected the schedule to be manageable despite having 5 SEC road games. I expected Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Florida to have poor seasons, though I was surprised how bad things got for Tennessee and Florida. I also expected LSU to match up well with Texas A&M and win that game.
Auburn and Mississippi State were always the toughest games on the schedule, though I was surprised by how tough they were. I thought the loss of Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson from Auburn’s defensive line would hurt Auburn’s defense, but Auburn was just as stout this year against the run. I also did not expect Mississippi State to be as good. At home, the Bulldogs are a top 15 team with Nick Fitzgerald. Not so much on the road.
Of course, the game that knocked LSU down to 9 wins instead of 10 was the game nobody saw coming before the season. Sure, LSU should have beat Troy at home, but the Tigers easily could have dropped the Florida or Auburn games. LSU was clearly better than the other teams on the schedule.
Overall, LSU had a good regular season. The Tigers were fortunate to play the two of the weakest teams from the East. Then again, aren’t most of the SEC East teams weak?
Once the defense got healthy, the Tigers improved over the course of the season. The defense was at its peak when Arden Key was healthy, but I the defense was unable to put a full game together (except for BYU and apparently that has just as much to do with BYU).
Looking toward next year, Tiger fans should feel good about the defensive line despite losing half of the two deep. That is because Rashard Lawrence will return. Texas Tech transfer Breiden Fahoko should replace LaCoutre (who had a great season). Ed Alexander and Tyler Shelvin are very capable of replacing Greg Gilmore at nose guard. Some of the lineman who redshirted this year will need to provide depth, but LSU should not be counting on any 18 year old freshman to start on the defensive line.
At linebacker, this was the scary year with true freshmen starting at inside and outside linebacker. Next year, Devin White is back at inside linebacker and so are other very talented players that will have a year’s worth of experience. LSU will clearly miss Arden Key at outside linebacker, but I saw improvement from K’Lavon Chaisson in the Texas A&M game. He was able to play his responsibility against the run against a spread team and make the tackle in space. Something he was not capable of doing early in the season. I fully expect him to develop into an All-SEC player next year.
Losing Donte Jackson, Kevin Toliver, and John Battle is a heavy loss in the secondary. The biggest question will be the cornerback opposite Greedy Williams. Fortunately, there are a few good candidates who saw playing time this year like Kary Vincent. At safety, Grant Delpit will be back as will Ed Paris after his injury. Jacoby Stevens and Eric Monroe will be ready as well.
The offense will enter a new era. There might be a new coordinator, but there will definitely be a new quarterback. The development of the offensive line gives plenty of reason to think LSU will have a solid running game and quality pass protection.
The biggest concern and disappointment from this season is at running back and wide receiver. LSU never developed a running back behind Williams and Guice or a quality receiver behind Gage and Chark. The good news is Edwards-Helaire showed flashes and true freshmen running backs usually adjust to college football quickly. Also, LSU will have Jonathan Giles eligible who was Texas Tech’s leading receiver last year.
I can’t look ahead to next year, though, without mentioning the schedule. There is a lot that can happen between now and next year. Coaching changes, transfers, junior leaving early for the NFL, suspensions, and more. Still, the schedule is brutal.
Just compare to this year. Miami replaces BYU. The Hurricanes return most of their roster. Georgia replaces Tennessee. At least Georgia is at home, but most experts already thought Georgia would be better next year.
Of course, LSU goes to Florida again next year. The Swamp is always a tough place to play, and the Gators will surely be in a better place mentally under Dan Mullen’s leadership.
LSU will also travel to Auburn next year, and we saw this year how tough Jordan-Hare is on opponents. Auburn loses most of its offensive line and that will be the third game of the year.
While LSU’s schedule will be more challenging next year, the schedule for the Saints is reaching its most challenging stretch. Realistically speaking, we have a good view of what the Saints are this year. The top teams in the NFC are clearly the Rams, Vikings, and Eagles. The Saints have been beaten handily by the Rams and Vikings on the road. The Eagles are better than both of those teams.
I want to be the optimistic Saints fan too, but reality is pretty obvious at this point. Once
again, we saw this week how valuable Marshon Lattimore is to the defense. It is not surprising that the Saints must have their starting cornerbacks to stay with the best teams in the NFC.
What is surprising is that the Saints offense can’t keep pace in these games. Subtract the last 5 minutes from the Redskins and Rams games (two teams who historically defend the Saints well for some reason), and the offense has been shut down. Considering the weapons the Saints have on offense, I am pretty concerned by the performance the last two weeks.
The Panthers and Falcons are peaking. The defense is clearly going to have problems slowing those two offenses down. The offense must perform drastically better for the Saints to stay in the playoff hunt.
HEY REF
Who’s in? Who’s out? Who should be? Who shouldn’t be? So many questions, so few answers. If we win we should be in. Not so fast here, still have one more game. They can’t be “in” because they haven’t won a conference title. Those questions and many more will be answered in the next few days as the selection committee begins crunching numbers before sending out official invitations.
Four lucky schools will have their prayers answered as we prepare for the NCAA’s version of crowning an outright champion in Div. 1 football. Yes I’m very much aware that in last week’s column I wrote that the playoff should be expanded to eight teams. And yes I’m also very much aware that I’ve continued to say I don’t support any type/form of a playoff system for Div. 1 schools. And yes I’m very much aware it appears that I’m wanting my cake etc., etc.
The recently installed playoff system format just isn’t anywhere near being fair to the vast majority of schools. No doubt some 85 to 90 percent of schools feel they deserve a “shot” at becoming the next champion. Every school can put together a list of reasons “why” they should be invited to the dance. Reality though lifts up its ugly head and brings them back down to earth since facts aren’t open for discussion.
We’ve been able to separate the boys from the men and know the SEC reigns supreme whenever the talk is collegiate football. Without prejudice to any other conference none comes close to the SEC so we don’t have to begin a debate on the subject. Looking at the present polls there could an all SEC playoff. And without a doubt if that was ever done then the playoff would be expanded to eight teams overnight.
Maybe they should re-name the playoff system and call it “Bowling for Dollars”. Simply because at the end of the day getting your school into the playoff has absolutely nothing to do with taking home a crystal football or bragging rights. Bottom line everything comes down to DOLLARS! Present day athletics centers on getting those cherished dollars. Massive numbers of state budgets are being trimmed at an alarming rate across the country. Every school and state legislature is trying to find a way to reclaim funding for the many sports being offered to entice high school athletes.
I constantly hear schools using the reason (excuse) why they spend millions and millions of dollars on coaches’ salaries is so they can not only attract top candidates but keep them before another school comes around and offers more money. We’re seeing head football coaches given base salaries in the multiple millions annually. Assistants are also given a million or two to stay. And those figures aren’t just for the successful coaches. Most have what’s called a “buy-out” in case the school wants to fire them before the end of a current contract. These costs are usually 50% or higher of the contact they’re working under or a firm set amount.
Former LSU coach Les Miles is but one of the many coaches fired that have these such clauses. Miles receives somewhere between one or two million dollars a year since LSU desired to not see him on their sidelines anymore. 2017 has to be a banner year for coaches and their lawyers since this year alone the SEC had six head coaching jobs available before December 1. Of those six two were just filled. As we go to print the four schools still without a head coach are Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Arkansas.
Ole Miss filled its opening by naming interim coach Matt Luke their head coach while former Mississippi State boss hawg Dan Mullen was hired to restore the championship luster to Florida. In the Florida hiring they bring back together Athletic Director Scott Stricklin and Mullen who were both employed at Mississippi State. Mullen isn’t a stranger to the Gators as he was on staff serving as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator before getting the head job with the bulldogs of Mississippi State.
2017 could very easily be one of the most entertaining years in the coaching carousel. There’s an old saying that goes something like “There are only two types of coaches; those getting hired and those getting fired”. Coaches won’t be the only moving this year as we could see the most money ever moving from universities piggy banks to that one guy, the right guy who can turn hopes and dreams into reality. As most of us struggle from week to week to make enough money to pay our bills and feed our families most of us will not be able to comprehend the millions of dollars schools are willing to spend in the hopes of playing a game for big bucks. Fasten your seat belts as this off season is setting itself up to be the biggest spending carnival in the history of the NCAA.
And you know very well I can’t pass on a chance to mentioning how everything, every dollar and so on is spent in every which way possible except the one that should matter; THE PLAYERS! These kids are making billions for the NCAA and don’t receive a salary. The little received in books and tuition pale when we look at the big picture. When many schools don’t blink when a coach demands several millions to coach at their schools yet protest the paying of players then we know there’s a massive problem. As I’ve written before it just goes down as modern day slavery.
Till next week…
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